Morning Thoughts on Forty Thousand Deaths

There will be many questions about America’s response to Covid-19. Historians will pore over the documents and testimony for decades. I am no statistician, by any means — but I know that among my readers ARE such folks, and I wanted to propose a little exercise.

(Perhaps this just expresses my flawed thinking, and if so, I apologize in advance. But that’s the last apology.)

O.k. — here goes.

I think that the best comparisons for the U.S. are not Europe, but here in the Americas, as we have the exact same vectors: ship and plane. Across the Eurasian land-mass you have those two, but also wheeled traffic (trains, cars, motorcycles) and also foot traffic. I would expect that to impact the spread.

In the Americas, I’d assume that Canada would be the closest match: we’re immediately South, right next door, and the general organization and demographic composition is closer than anywhere else in the Americas. But some complained that the population density is different, so it is unfair.

So let’s do something odd. Again, just the way I think. Let’s compare the U.S. stats with both Canada AND our Southern neighbor, Mexico. Sandwich us.

But to be super fair, let’s also compare Canada with the “lower 48” and Alaska. Surely (I reckon) between all of these comparisons, we’ll find a way to be fair to us.

Population Density. (km=square kilometer)